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EXPERIENCE: Quand l'IA tente de créer le futur - Prospective en action - 28/12/20xx

Le présent article sort de nos habitudes de publication mais à l'aune d'une nouvelle décennie, il nous a paru important de vraiment "sauter le pas" et d'interagir directement avec une intelligence artificielle.

Le consortium OpenAI a publié il y a quelques mois un outil générateur de textes basé sur un système de Deeplearning. Cet outil, appelé "poétiquement" GPT-2 a été mis en libre accès sur différents sites internet dont : https://talktotransformer.com que nous avons utilisé pour l'occasion.


Le résultat est présenté ci-dessous.


Notre avis: la rapidité de réponse du système est impressionnante mais il nécessite plusieurs essais pour chaque paragraphe afin de proposer une réelle cohérence d'ensemble.

Mais ce qui nous a le plus surpris est le fait qu'il est patent que ce système ne constitue avant tout qu'un formidable outil d'analyses de données, ni plus ni moins.

Et dans le cadre d'un site de prospective, l'outil apparaît plus que décevant car il n'utilise en fait que l'existant (et donc le passé) pour produire des informations. La capacité d'anticipation, même lorsque nourri volontairement de dates et évènements non encore existants, est rapidement annihilée après un ou deux paragraphes qui rebondissent de façon opportunistes sur les données insérées.


Bien évidemment le progrès est réel en terme de capacité d'analyse, mais on est bien loin, dans le grand débat sur l'intelligence artificielle, des prédictions apocalyptiques de machines intelligentes.


Nous vous laissons apprécier la version finale (en anglais uniquement):

"Today, the speed of innovation on marine-inspired processes is increasing. For example, researchers at Technische Universitaet Berlin (TU Berlin) are working on biomimicry technologies. These are systems that involve both biological and engineered systems and mimic, by mimicking mechanisms in nature.


The issue of sparsity


The pace of innovation may be so fast today that it exceeds the limits of either hardware or algorithms. For example, on a recent trip to Spain, I met with my colleague Ricardo Magalhães, the manager of the Sensor Technologies and Engineering Division at Airbus Defense and Space. He was telling me about the Hyperloop "project" in the USA, and the reason why the latest technology described in the test paper on this project came from its home country.


Indeed, "in 3 years time we will have super-fast zero-emission ships," he said.

Ricardo is obsessed with his client, and for good reason. His Airbus will launch a new fleet of super-fast zero-emission aircraft in the 2040s. The first will be a public jet that will run at five times the speed of sound (360km/h). It will be a sort of revolutionary flying bus, bringing people from their homes to meetings in the city, and giving them a rest from flying. But unlike buses it will also cruise around for a bit at 2m/s, converting a lot of air space to store energy in the form of hydrogen. This will use a lower-energy form of the cleanest source of energy, water.


Ricardo wants this power-storing system to be a significant part of his new world.

"This so-called 'clean' flying water system will allow us to transition from an almost completely coal-based global energy system to renewable energy," he said.

That may be too optimistic, however. Jason Bordoff, the author of a recent study for the Breakthrough Institute, called it "a game changer" but said it was "still far from perfect" and "unlikely to be the sole solution."

"The real solution will be to transition off the dirty and expensive fossil fuels as quickly as possible," Mr. Bordoff said. "It will be disruptive and disruptive means the energy industry's greatest weakness in dealing with climate change is the constant delay that goes along with changing to renewable energy sources."

But that, Mr. Bordoff and other experts acknowledge, can be a tricky move, given the public outcry over fracking and associated air pollution.

But once the industry realigns, so can the public conversation.

"The difficulty is to try to accelerate it so that as a result of this transition," said Mark Brownstein, director of environmental advocacy at the Environmental Defense Fund.Some experts agree that broading the conversation around more sustainable energy sources and engaging the public on the benefits of cutting carbon emissions is a necessary first step toward transforming the country's energy system.

"We need to get moving," said Jean Soler, a professor of energy economics at MIT and director of the MIT Energy Initiative. "The U.S. is far from meeting its current energy commitments, and that's a big opportunity for change.""